Like other job forecasts released each quarter this year by CareerBuilder and USA Today, the forecast for the fourth quarter contains more than a kernel of optimism. Overall, hiring has, according to the forecast, trended up with 24% (up from a projected 21%) of employers reporting that they had hired additional full-time permanent staff during the first three quarters of 2010. Nevertheless, Career Builder’s chief executive officer, Matt Ferguson, issues the following warning at the outset of this quarter’s report: “Although the recession officially ended a year ago, we still have an economy burdened by debt. Employers are watchful and gradually augmenting their staffs with permanent temporary hiring.” Today’s blog post will look carefully at some of the results of this quarter’s job forecast. Monday I will conclude my discussion of this quarter’s job forecast by looking at what this quarter’s results say about the psyche and health of the American worker.
Though sufficiently noncommittal, Ferguson’s statements seem to imply an optimism about the trajectory of America’s labor market, hopeful that though it may “take some time,” there will be a gradual “return to pre-recession employment levels.” These statements must be understood against the backdrop of the American labor market as it has developed over the course of the (now bygone) recession. Many have wondered whether employment levels, due to structural changes and shifts in labor markets, will make a return to pre-recession levels, surmising that the unemployment rate may have found a new bottom. However, recent Congressional Budget Office reports, which expect the unemployment rate to 5 percent in 2014 and level off around 2016, lend credence to Ferguson’s statements. In addition to this, the CareerBuilder/USA Today report seems to confirm recent observations about trends in private sector hiring.
Although its writer’s find optimism in its pages, CareerBuilder and USA Today’s most recent job forecast contains the same uncertainty that can be found in other recent economic and employment-related reports. According to the forecast, 21% of those employers polled plan to increase their number of full-time permanent employees, while 10% intend to decrease their payroll numbers. In the same vein, respondents reported that of those employees hired in the fourth quarter 2010, 27% of employers report that they will be hiring contact or temporary workers. These latter two statistics, though indicating positive trends in private sector hiring, are beginning to take a toll on the psyche of the American worker.
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